The Impact of World Gold Prices on JCI

Oct 13, 2025 by magicalceylontours.com 139 views

Introduction

The world of finance is a complex and ever-changing landscape, with various factors influencing the performance of stock markets around the globe. One of the key indicators of a country's economic health is its stock market index, which reflects the overall performance of the market. In Indonesia, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is the primary stock market index, and it is influenced by various domestic and international factors. This study aims to investigate the effect of world gold prices, world crude oil prices, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index, and the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) index on the JCI for the 2012-2016 period.

Research Methodology

The analysis method applied in this study is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), which allows researchers to explore the influence of all estimated variables, both from the current period and from previous periods of the JCI. To get valid data, researchers use secondary data obtained from publication reports on various related websites. The data used is monthly data during the study period, namely from January 2012 to December 2016.

Research Findings

The results showed that the JCI variable in the previous period played a role in influencing the current CSPI fluctuations. Not only that, the price of world gold and SSEC index from the same period or the previous period also had a significant impact on the JCI. Conversely, the price of world crude oil and the tasi index in the previous period did not show a significant effect on CSPI fluctuations. Only the price of world crude oil and tasi index in the related periods that play a role in influencing the JCI in the same period.

Linkage Analysis

This study indicates a long-term relationship between estimated variables. In other words, the price of world gold and SSEC index not only affect the JCI in the short term, but also has a broader and more sustainable impact. This is important for investors to consider these macroeconomic factors when making investment decisions.

The estimated results also show that the independent variables tested contributed 92.03% in influencing the JCI. This shows that although there are other variables that might affect the market, most JCI movements can be explained through changes in the price of gold, crude oil, and other stock indexes.

The Impact of World Gold Prices on JCI

The price of gold is a significant factor in influencing the JCI. Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset, and its price tends to increase during times of economic uncertainty. This study found that the price of gold in the same period or the previous period had a significant impact on the JCI. This suggests that investors in Indonesia are influenced by the global gold market, and changes in gold prices can have a ripple effect on the JCI.

The Impact of World Crude Oil Prices on JCI

The price of crude oil is another significant factor in influencing the JCI. Crude oil is a major commodity that affects the global economy, and changes in its price can have a significant impact on the JCI. This study found that the price of crude oil in the related periods played a role in influencing the JCI in the same period. This suggests that investors in Indonesia are influenced by the global crude oil market, and changes in crude oil prices can have a ripple effect on the JCI.

The Impact of SSEC Index on JCI

The SSEC index is a significant factor in influencing the JCI. The SSEC index reflects the performance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which is one of the largest stock exchanges in the world. This study found that the SSEC index in the same period or the previous period had a significant impact on the JCI. This suggests that investors in Indonesia are influenced by the Chinese stock market, and changes in the SSEC index can have a ripple effect on the JCI.

The Impact of Tasi Index on JCI

The Tasi index is a significant factor in influencing the JCI. The Tasi index reflects the performance of the Tadawul All Share Index, which is the primary stock market index in Saudi Arabia. This study found that the Tasi index in the related periods played a role in influencing the JCI in the same period. This suggests that investors in Indonesia are influenced by the Saudi Arabian stock market, and changes in the Tasi index can have a ripple effect on the JCI.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this research confirms the importance of the price of gold and the SSEC index in influencing the JCI. Investors and policy makers in the capital market are expected to be able to take advantage of this information to make more informational and strategic decisions. By understanding the factors that influence the JCI, related parties can plan more appropriate actions to improve their investment performance.

By integrating the results of this study into an investment strategy, it is hoped that investors can be better prepared to face market fluctuations that might occur in the future. This study provides valuable insights into the factors that influence the JCI, and it can be used as a reference for investors and policy makers in the capital market.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made:

Investors in Indonesia should consider the price of gold and the SSEC index when making investment decisions.
Policy makers in the capital market should take into account the impact of the price of gold and the SSEC index on the JCI when making policy decisions.
Investors in Indonesia should also consider the impact of the Tasi index on the JCI when making investment decisions.
Further research should be conducted to investigate the impact of other macroeconomic factors on the JCI.

Limitations of the Study

This study has several limitations, including:

The study only considered the impact of the price of gold, crude oil, and the SSEC and Tasi indices on the JCI.
The study only used secondary data, which may not be comprehensive or up-to-date.
The study only considered the impact of these factors on the JCI during the 2012-2016 period.

Future Research Directions

This study provides a foundation for further research on the factors that influence the JCI. Some potential future research directions include:

Investigating the impact of other macroeconomic factors on the JCI.
Conducting a more comprehensive analysis of the impact of the price of gold, crude oil, and the SSEC and Tasi indices on the JCI.
Using more advanced statistical methods to analyze the data.

By understanding the factors that influence the JCI, investors and policy makers in the capital market can make more informed decisions and improve their investment performance.

Q: What is the purpose of this study?

A: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of world gold prices, world crude oil prices, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index, and the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) index on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) for the 2012-2016 period.

Q: What is the research methodology used in this study?

A: The analysis method applied in this study is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), which allows researchers to explore the influence of all estimated variables, both from the current period and from previous periods of the JCI.

Q: What are the findings of this study?

A: The results showed that the JCI variable in the previous period played a role in influencing the current CSPI fluctuations. Not only that, the price of world gold and SSEC index from the same period or the previous period also had a significant impact on the JCI. Conversely, the price of world crude oil and the tasi index in the previous period did not show a significant effect on CSPI fluctuations.

Q: What is the significance of the price of gold in influencing the JCI?

A: The price of gold is a significant factor in influencing the JCI. Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset, and its price tends to increase during times of economic uncertainty. This study found that the price of gold in the same period or the previous period had a significant impact on the JCI.

Q: What is the significance of the SSEC index in influencing the JCI?

A: The SSEC index is a significant factor in influencing the JCI. The SSEC index reflects the performance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which is one of the largest stock exchanges in the world. This study found that the SSEC index in the same period or the previous period had a significant impact on the JCI.

Q: What is the significance of the Tasi index in influencing the JCI?

A: The Tasi index is a significant factor in influencing the JCI. The Tasi index reflects the performance of the Tadawul All Share Index, which is the primary stock market index in Saudi Arabia. This study found that the Tasi index in the related periods played a role in influencing the JCI in the same period.

Q: What are the implications of this study for investors and policy makers?

A: The findings of this study have significant implications for investors and policy makers in the capital market. Investors should consider the price of gold, the SSEC index, and the Tasi index when making investment decisions. Policy makers should take into account the impact of these factors on the JCI when making policy decisions.

Q: What are the limitations of this study?

A: This study has several limitations, including:

The study only considered the impact of the price of gold, crude oil, and the SSEC and Tasi indices on the JCI.
The study only used secondary data, which may not be comprehensive or up-to-date.
The study only considered the impact of these factors on the JCI during the 2012-2016 period.

Q: What are the future research directions based on this study?

A: This study provides a foundation for further research on the factors that influence the JCI. Some potential future research directions include:

Investigating the impact of other macroeconomic factors on the JCI.
Conducting a more comprehensive analysis of the impact of the price of gold, crude oil, and the SSEC and Tasi indices on the JCI.
Using more advanced statistical methods to analyze the data.

Q: What are the practical implications of this study for investors and policy makers?

A: The findings of this study have significant practical implications for investors and policy makers in the capital market. Investors should consider the price of gold, the SSEC index, and the Tasi index when making investment decisions. Policy makers should take into account the impact of these factors on the JCI when making policy decisions.

Q: What are the policy implications of this study?

A: The findings of this study have significant policy implications for the capital market. Policy makers should take into account the impact of the price of gold, the SSEC index, and the Tasi index on the JCI when making policy decisions. This includes considering the impact of these factors on the JCI when making decisions about monetary policy, fiscal policy, and regulatory policy.

Q: What are the future research directions based on this study?

A: This study provides a foundation for further research on the factors that influence the JCI. Some potential future research directions include:

Investigating the impact of other macroeconomic factors on the JCI.
Conducting a more comprehensive analysis of the impact of the price of gold, crude oil, and the SSEC and Tasi indices on the JCI.
Using more advanced statistical methods to analyze the data.

Q: What are the limitations of this study?

A: This study has several limitations, including:

The study only considered the impact of the price of gold, crude oil, and the SSEC and Tasi indices on the JCI.
The study only used secondary data, which may not be comprehensive or up-to-date.
The study only considered the impact of these factors on the JCI during the 2012-2016 period.

Q: What are the future research directions based on this study?

A: This study provides a foundation for further research on the factors that influence the JCI. Some potential future research directions include:

Investigating the impact of other macroeconomic factors on the JCI.
Conducting a more comprehensive analysis of the impact of the price of gold, crude oil, and the SSEC and Tasi indices on the JCI.
Using more advanced statistical methods to analyze the data.