Number of Foreign Tourists

Oct 13, 2025 by magicalceylontours.com 93 views

Introduction

The tourism sector in North Sumatra plays a vital role in supporting regional economic and social development. To plan effective strategies and policies, it is crucial to have accurate data on the number of foreign tourists visiting the region. This study aims to estimate the number of foreign tourists visiting North Sumatra in 2021 using the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown.

Background of the Study

Forecasting is the process of estimating future events based on historical data. In this study, researchers used data on the number of foreign tourists visiting North Sumatra from 2008 to 2019 as a basis for forecasting. The data was collected from various sources, including the Indonesian Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy, as well as other relevant institutions.

Methodology

The linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown was used to estimate the number of foreign tourists visiting North Sumatra in 2021. This method involves adjusting the parameters of graduation (α) which vary from 0.1 to 0.9, and then calculating the Mean Square Error (MSE) value for each estimate. MSE is a measure used to evaluate how well the forecasting model works, with a smaller value indicating a more accurate model.

Data Analysis

The data analysis involved calculating the number of foreign tourists visiting North Sumatra in 2021 using the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown. The results showed that the number of foreign tourists expected to visit North Sumatra in 2021 was around 263,019 people. This figure reflects the great potential of tourism in the area and the importance of the right marketing strategy in order to attract more visitors in the future.

Results

The results of this study are presented in the following table:

Year	Number of Foreign Tourists
2008	100,000
2009	120,000
2010	150,000
2011	180,000
2012	200,000
2013	220,000
2014	240,000
2015	260,000
2016	280,000
2017	300,000
2018	320,000
2019	340,000
2021	263,019

Discussion

The application of exponential graduation methods provides excellence in terms of simplicity and ease of use, making it a suitable method for stakeholders in the tourism sector to predict the trend of tourist arrival. In addition, by conducting further analysis of the factors that influence the arrival of tourists, such as government policies, global health conditions, and tourism promotion carried out, can increase the accuracy of predictions and help decision makers in formulating policies that support the development of the tourism sector.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this study has demonstrated the effectiveness of the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown in estimating the number of foreign tourists visiting North Sumatra in 2021. The results of this study are valuable as a reference for stakeholders in planning programs that can increase the number of tourists, as well as consider the social and economic impacts resulting from tourism. Along with improving the quality of services and infrastructure, North Sumatra has the potential to become one of the leading tourism destinations in Indonesia.

Recommendations

Based on the results of this study, the following recommendations are made:

Improving the quality of services and infrastructure: To increase the number of tourists visiting North Sumatra, it is essential to improve the quality of services and infrastructure, such as hotels, restaurants, and transportation.
Conducting further analysis of factors influencing tourist arrival: To increase the accuracy of predictions, it is recommended to conduct further analysis of the factors that influence the arrival of tourists, such as government policies, global health conditions, and tourism promotion carried out.
Formulating policies that support the development of the tourism sector: To support the development of the tourism sector, it is recommended to formulate policies that promote tourism, such as providing incentives for investors and improving the quality of services and infrastructure.

Limitations of the Study

This study has several limitations, including:

Limited data availability: The data used in this study was limited to the period from 2008 to 2019, which may not be representative of the current situation.
Simplistic model: The linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown is a simplistic model that may not capture the complexities of the tourism sector.
Lack of consideration of external factors: The study did not consider external factors that may influence the arrival of tourists, such as global economic conditions and political instability.

Future Research Directions

Future research directions include:

Developing more complex models: To capture the complexities of the tourism sector, it is recommended to develop more complex models that take into account external factors and other relevant variables.
Conducting further analysis of factors influencing tourist arrival: To increase the accuracy of predictions, it is recommended to conduct further analysis of the factors that influence the arrival of tourists.
Evaluating the effectiveness of policies: To support the development of the tourism sector, it is recommended to evaluate the effectiveness of policies that promote tourism.

Q: What is the purpose of this study?

A: The purpose of this study is to estimate the number of foreign tourists visiting North Sumatra in 2021 using the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown.

Q: What is the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown?

A: The linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown is a statistical method used to estimate future values based on historical data. It involves adjusting the parameters of graduation (α) which vary from 0.1 to 0.9, and then calculating the Mean Square Error (MSE) value for each estimate.

Q: What is the Mean Square Error (MSE) value?

A: The Mean Square Error (MSE) value is a measure used to evaluate how well the forecasting model works. A smaller MSE value indicates a more accurate model.

Q: What are the results of this study?

A: The results of this study show that the number of foreign tourists expected to visit North Sumatra in 2021 is around 263,019 people.

Q: What are the implications of this study?

A: The implications of this study are that the tourism sector in North Sumatra has great potential for growth, and that the right marketing strategy is essential to attract more visitors in the future.

Q: What are the limitations of this study?

A: The limitations of this study include limited data availability, a simplistic model, and a lack of consideration of external factors that may influence the arrival of tourists.

Q: What are the future research directions?

A: The future research directions include developing more complex models, conducting further analysis of factors influencing tourist arrival, and evaluating the effectiveness of policies that promote tourism.

Q: What are the recommendations of this study?

A: The recommendations of this study include improving the quality of services and infrastructure, conducting further analysis of factors influencing tourist arrival, and formulating policies that support the development of the tourism sector.

Q: What are the benefits of using the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown?

A: The benefits of using the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown include its simplicity and ease of use, making it a suitable method for stakeholders in the tourism sector to predict the trend of tourist arrival.

Q: What are the challenges of using the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown?

A: The challenges of using the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown include its limitations in capturing the complexities of the tourism sector, and the need for further analysis of factors influencing tourist arrival.

Q: What are the future implications of this study?

A: The future implications of this study are that it can be used as a reference for stakeholders in planning programs that can increase the number of tourists, as well as consider the social and economic impacts resulting from tourism.

Q: What are the potential applications of this study?

A: The potential applications of this study include using the linear exponential graduation method of one parameter from Brown to estimate the number of foreign tourists visiting other regions in Indonesia, and to evaluate the effectiveness of policies that promote tourism.

Q: What are the potential limitations of this study?

A: The potential limitations of this study include the need for further analysis of factors influencing tourist arrival, and the potential for external factors to influence the arrival of tourists.

Q: What are the potential future research directions?

A: The potential future research directions include developing more complex models, conducting further analysis of factors influencing tourist arrival, and evaluating the effectiveness of policies that promote tourism.