Implement the quadratic trend method

Oct 13, 2025 by magicalceylontours.com 25 views

Forecasting Requests for Finger Joint Laminated Board Board Products and Pine Wood Raw Materials at PT Sumber Karindo Sakti in Tebing Syahbandar

Introduction

In the industrial world, forecasting demand is one of the crucial aspects that affect the sustainability and growth of a company. One concrete example of this can be seen in PT Sumber Karindo Sakti on Tebing Syahbandar which produces a finger joint laminated board (FJLB) board. In the midst of fierce competition and the need for increasing pine wood raw materials, this company must carry out accurate forecasting in order to meet market demand without experiencing advantages or excess stock.

The Importance of Forecasting in Business

Forecasting demand is a critical aspect of business that can make or break a company's success. It involves predicting future sales, revenue, and production levels based on historical data, market trends, and other factors. Accurate forecasting enables companies to make informed decisions about production, inventory, and resource allocation, ultimately leading to increased efficiency, reduced costs, and improved competitiveness.

Background of the Study

PT Sumber Karindo Sakti is a company that produces FJLB boards, which are used in various industries such as construction, furniture, and packaging. The company relies heavily on pine wood raw materials, which are in high demand due to their durability and versatility. However, the high competition in the use of pine wood as raw materials causes companies to import raw materials from further areas such as East Aceh. This study aims to determine the right forecasting method in predicting the demand for FJLB boards and the needs of pine wood raw materials in the future.

Methodology

This study uses three forecasting methods, namely linear, quadratic, and exponential trends. The selection of the method is based on the smallest error or deviation, namely the mean absolute deviation (MAD), the Mean Squared Error (MSE), and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (Mape). The forecasting process is carried out with the help of the Microsoft Excel application that facilitates data analysis.

Data Collection and Analysis

The data used in this study are secondary data obtained from PT Sumber Karindo Sakti and the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra Province. The results of the analysis showed that the quadratic trend method was the most suitable for predicting the demand for FJLB products and the needs of pine wood raw materials. This method shows the smallest value of MAD, MSE, and Mape, which indicates high forecast accuracy.

Results and Discussion

The forecasting results show that the trend of demand for FJLB products shows a positive or increased pattern. This illustrates that in the near future, demand for the product will continue to grow, so PT Sumber Karindo Sakti needs to prepare strategic steps in the procurement of raw materials and increasing production capacity. By understanding this trend, PT Sumber Karindo Sakti can not only meet market demand efficiently, but can also achieve competitive advantage by optimizing their resources.

Conclusion

This study highlights the importance of accurate forecasting in business, particularly in the production of FJLB boards and pine wood raw materials. The use of quadratic trend method as the most suitable forecasting method demonstrates the potential of this approach in predicting future demand and needs. By applying this method, PT Sumber Karindo Sakti can make informed decisions about production, inventory, and resource allocation, ultimately leading to increased efficiency, reduced costs, and improved competitiveness.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made:

Implement the quadratic trend method as the primary forecasting method for predicting demand for FJLB boards and pine wood raw materials.
Conduct regular data analysis to ensure that the forecasting method remains accurate and effective.
Develop strategic plans for procurement of raw materials and increasing production capacity to meet growing demand.
Continuously monitor market trends and adjust forecasting methods as needed to ensure competitiveness.

Limitations of the Study

This study has several limitations, including:

Limited data availability: The study relies on secondary data from PT Sumber Karindo Sakti and the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra Province.
Methodological limitations: The study uses a single forecasting method, which may not be applicable to all industries or companies.
Lack of control group: The study does not include a control group to compare the effectiveness of the quadratic trend method with other forecasting methods.

Future Research Directions

Future research directions include:

Comparing the effectiveness of different forecasting methods, including linear, quadratic, and exponential trends.
Developing a hybrid forecasting method that combines multiple methods to improve accuracy.
Applying the quadratic trend method to other industries or companies to evaluate its effectiveness.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this study demonstrates the importance of accurate forecasting in business, particularly in the production of FJLB boards and pine wood raw materials. The use of quadratic trend method as the most suitable forecasting method highlights the potential of this approach in predicting future demand and needs. By applying this method, PT Sumber Karindo Sakti can make informed decisions about production, inventory, and resource allocation, ultimately leading to increased efficiency, reduced costs, and improved competitiveness.
Q&A: Forecasting Requests for Finger Joint Laminated Board Board Products and Pine Wood Raw Materials at PT Sumber Karindo Sakti in Tebing Syahbandar

Q: What is the importance of forecasting in business?

A: Forecasting demand is a critical aspect of business that can make or break a company's success. It involves predicting future sales, revenue, and production levels based on historical data, market trends, and other factors. Accurate forecasting enables companies to make informed decisions about production, inventory, and resource allocation, ultimately leading to increased efficiency, reduced costs, and improved competitiveness.

Q: What are the three forecasting methods used in this study?

A: The three forecasting methods used in this study are linear, quadratic, and exponential trends. The selection of the method is based on the smallest error or deviation, namely the mean absolute deviation (MAD), the Mean Squared Error (MSE), and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (Mape).

Q: Why was the quadratic trend method chosen as the most suitable forecasting method?

A: The quadratic trend method was chosen as the most suitable forecasting method because it shows the smallest value of MAD, MSE, and Mape, which indicates high forecast accuracy.

Q: What are the implications of the forecasting results for PT Sumber Karindo Sakti?

A: The forecasting results show that the trend of demand for FJLB products shows a positive or increased pattern. This illustrates that in the near future, demand for the product will continue to grow, so PT Sumber Karindo Sakti needs to prepare strategic steps in the procurement of raw materials and increasing production capacity.

Q: How can PT Sumber Karindo Sakti use the forecasting results to achieve competitive advantage?

A: By understanding the trend of demand for FJLB products, PT Sumber Karindo Sakti can not only meet market demand efficiently, but can also achieve competitive advantage by optimizing their resources.

Q: What are the limitations of this study?

A: This study has several limitations, including:

Limited data availability: The study relies on secondary data from PT Sumber Karindo Sakti and the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra Province.
Methodological limitations: The study uses a single forecasting method, which may not be applicable to all industries or companies.
Lack of control group: The study does not include a control group to compare the effectiveness of the quadratic trend method with other forecasting methods.

Q: What are the future research directions for this study?

A: Future research directions include:

Comparing the effectiveness of different forecasting methods, including linear, quadratic, and exponential trends.
Developing a hybrid forecasting method that combines multiple methods to improve accuracy.
Applying the quadratic trend method to other industries or companies to evaluate its effectiveness.

Q: What are the practical implications of this study for businesses?

A: This study highlights the importance of accurate forecasting in business, particularly in the production of FJLB boards and pine wood raw materials. By applying the quadratic trend method, businesses can make informed decisions about production, inventory, and resource allocation, ultimately leading to increased efficiency, reduced costs, and improved competitiveness.

Q: How can businesses use this study to improve their forecasting capabilities?

A: Businesses can use this study to improve their forecasting capabilities by:

Implementing the quadratic trend method as a primary forecasting method.
Conducting regular data analysis to ensure that the forecasting method remains accurate and effective.
Developing strategic plans for procurement of raw materials and increasing production capacity to meet growing demand.
Continuously monitoring market trends and adjusting forecasting methods as needed to ensure competitiveness.